Line shopping is the single highest-value skill in sports betting.
Two operators pricing the same game at different numbers is the definition of an inefficient market. Here is how to exploit it without being complicated.
Why lines differ
Every sportsbook prices independently. They start from the same market consensus, but their risk position, their customer base, and their pricing model all diverge. A book that has taken heavy money on the Leafs will shade its Leafs price to discourage more Leafs money. A book with different customers will shade differently. This is how the same game ends up at bet365 -1.5 (-110), FanDuel -1.5 (-105), and DraftKings -1.5 (-115) simultaneously.
What the price difference is worth
Getting your bet in at -105 rather than -115 improves your expected value by about 4.5% on every winning bet. Over a season, that is the difference between profitable and break-even for the average bettor. Line shopping is worth more than being right slightly more often. It is the single most impactful technique available to a recreational bettor.
How to actually shop
Have accounts at three books minimum: bet365, DraftKings, and FanDuel if you are in Ontario, or Sports Interaction, PlayNow, and Bodog outside Ontario. Before you place any bet, open all three, compare the price, and place at whichever is best. This takes an extra 60 seconds and improves your long-term returns by a measurable amount.
Where shopping matters most
Player-prop markets have the biggest price differences because they trade lighter than moneylines and books do not shade them in sync. A rebound-prop line can vary by half a rebound between books, which is the equivalent of getting -105 versus +105 on the same event. Shop props before moneylines if you have to prioritise.
What not to do
Do not chase a good price by rushing a bet. If bet365 has +125 on the Leafs moneyline and FanDuel has +120, place at bet365. But do not decide to bet the Leafs just because bet365 has a good price. The bet still has to be one you would make anyway.
Sources
- Efficient market theory in sports betting (Levitt, 2004): University of Chicago working paper
- MIT paper on line movement and information asymmetry: MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference